AM43 - Institutions et développement économique

The most important financial risk to which the banking sector is exposed is credit risk. Credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. These failures are characterized by high rates of non-performing loans and by the effects of the macroeconomic environment.

This paper has a twofold objective, the first will present an empirical approach to identify the macroeconomic determinants of borrower default. It will briefly outline the role of the central bank in managing credit risk, it will estimate and explain the correlation of some macroeconomic determinants on bank risk between 2007 and 2019, in this study we will use the VAR model. The second objective of this work will present an analysis through some curves of the variables to show the impact of COVID-19 on the credit risk.

Several scientific research groups have made unprecedented progress in the development of tourist places: urbanisation, diversification, touristification, evolution of the quality of tourist places, from the tourist centre to the tourist city; from the resort to the city; from the city to the touristified city; from the resort to the urban district. Other researchers have enabled us to understand the variables which explain these development processes and thus to have access to a coherent model for the analysis of the different life cycles/trajectories of these places, in this case tourist resorts: the relay (sustainability of the tourist function in these places); the abyss (cessation of the tourist function); or the metamorphosis (evolution of the tourist resort into a city based on functions other than tourism). In order to better understand these different trajectories of tourist resorts, these researchers have proposed the concept of the "tourist capital" of a resort to understand different trajectories over the long term. This concept is made up of six sub-capitals: symbolic, urban, resource, political, economic and knowledge. Through the intermediary of artificial intelligence via the classification of images from Instagram with the technique of convolutional neural networks (CNN), we propose a communication of a methodological nature to explain the construction of a method for measuring the tourist capital of places. Once finalized, this model would be able to analyze the identity of a tourist resort and its life cycle. 

The High Tell is one of the principal regions of production of wheat in Tunisia. It is characterized by the alternation of narrow plains with small mountains where a small peasantry practices cereal culture associated with harvesting of small herds. The agriculture in the mountainous areas is mechanized by introduction of different kinds of tractors. The selected seeds and the chemical fertilizers are also generalized. The costs of these labors are hard compared to the capacity of these small peasants who resisted the different waves of rural exodus which infected this region like all the interior regions of Tunisia. The adoption of the policy of structural adjustment and the retreat of agricultural organisms behind the private sector has weakened the small peasantry behind the urban capital, the merchants and the traders of agricultural inputs. In addition to the ordinary debts to the possessors of the agricultural machinery, the small peasantry of High Tell faced difficulties to access to the agricultural inputs. These new operators in the agricultural domain implicate high prices of inputs that exceed the capacity of the peasants. The latter, forced by the narrow calendar of the agricultural laborers, cannot resist the new context of the monopolization of the inputs. 

Due to the absence of a severe policy against the complicated forms of monopolization, the deficiency of the cereal culture became harder and the situation of the small peasantry more difficult. This situation favors the urban dominance on rural lands through the absentees labour’s relationships after the waves of the rural exodus. In this communication, we study in a first stage the characteristics of the cereal culture in the High Tell and their transformations. Then, we analyse the difficulties implicated on the small peasantry by the new context of monopolization. Finally, we study the impacts of this situation on rural economy and the labour relationships. 

Hotel and restaurant workers, among whom immigrants are overrepresented, have been put out of work for a long time as a result of anti-Covid-19 measures. The Samusocial Observatory is conducting a collective survey of this population in the Île-de-France region, starting with the second containment of the French population (October 2020). Based on interviews and long-term ethnographic monitoring, the study shows how the sectoral crisis is testing the resistance of domestic economies but also of social policies. Counter-intuitively, for the poorest people, especially if they are already caught in the net of assistance, we observe increased protections. At a certain point, the observation is made that the State is protective and reinforces social assistance and provides access to emergency accommodation, for example. For people who are "stable" a priori, especially impoverished tenants, the decrescendo of monetary resources and consequently the budgetary contractions can be acute. How do workers and their households compensate, with what alternative income and biographical reorientations? Do the movements of economic recovery take workers with them? The paper proposes to question the encounter between the individual trajectories and a sectoral crisis whose temporality does not necessarily coincide with those of personal crises.